Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.206552 0.248167 0.298071 0.362951 0.445993 0.549978 6.920535e-01
2025-06-01 0.151586 0.198810 0.262070 0.355050 0.491809 0.691576 1.017346e+00
2025-06-08 0.116733 0.164572 0.234913 0.350053 0.542479 0.868740 1.507343e+00
2025-06-15 0.093603 0.140665 0.215925 0.352161 0.610064 1.119681 2.338755e+00
2025-06-22 0.076419 0.121516 0.199291 0.353925 0.684315 1.447863 3.725798e+00
2025-06-29 0.060990 0.101521 0.175905 0.336039 0.716679 1.733778 5.518383e+00
2025-07-06 0.044349 0.075761 0.135499 0.270238 0.611785 1.611431 5.923075e+00
2025-07-13 0.037689 0.066923 0.125585 0.267740 0.666673 2.023199 9.617150e+00
2025-07-20 0.033322 0.061530 0.121336 0.277616 0.767600 2.747182 1.818165e+01
2025-07-27 0.030049 0.057631 0.119358 0.293402 0.906235 3.905433 3.940953e+01
2025-08-03 0.026972 0.053490 0.115769 0.304046 1.044382 5.445302 9.061672e+01
2025-08-10 0.023678 0.048197 0.108014 0.299269 1.123677 6.943472 1.944946e+02
2025-08-17 0.020359 0.042429 0.098174 0.285955 1.169903 8.599308 4.517302e+02
2025-08-24 0.018279 0.039188 0.094267 0.292162 1.334692 12.456843 1.961394e+03
2025-08-31 0.016498 0.036324 0.090674 0.298556 1.525151 18.504424 1.673503e+04
2025-09-07 0.015070 0.034063 0.088257 0.309243 1.780219 29.354900 1.547469e+06
2025-09-14 0.013786 0.031927 0.085649 0.318443 2.064145 47.644963 NaN
2025-09-21 0.012305 0.028978 0.079645 0.308864 2.184513 66.107541 NaN
2025-09-28 0.010185 0.023943 0.065636 0.253375 1.774996 52.086227 NaN
2025-10-05 0.009349 0.022372 0.062947 0.254396 1.964814 80.021143 NaN
2025-10-12 0.008789 0.021482 0.062362 0.266591 2.330616 151.313876 NaN
2025-10-19 0.008350 0.020863 0.062595 0.284224 2.854909 340.046989 NaN
2025-10-26 0.007877 0.020058 0.061937 0.296742 3.390998 789.382667 NaN